2024 Cubs

[MrSheps]

You had to jinx us, Butch...

[Butcher]

You had to jinx us, Butch...

This is my punishment for allowing hope to creep in. Sorry, fellas.

[MrSheps]

I was curious about WAR leaders, and if Ohtani was likely to get an MVP primarily as a DH. Looked up FanGraphs league leaders and found Judge and Witt Jr. at 10.1 and 10, which is incredible. Ohtani is at 7. I got curious about Cubs leaders and Happ was first at 4, then Swanson at 3.6, Hoerner at 3.5 (defense driving this I assume), then Suzuki (the opposite) at 3.1. Then they have Steele at 2.9 and Shota at 2.8.

I totally understand why it's not wise to fixate on a pitcher's actual W/L record, so much is out of their control, but when talking about "wins above replacement" I have a hard time understanding how a pitcher's WAR can be that low relative to a theoretical "replacement-level" pitcher, if replacement level isn't an average of all starters. I see in the FanGraphs glossary just how complex the calculations are that are being done, and as a tool of comparison between players I have no issue with it, but I think I'm just hung up on the definition of a "replacement-level player". Definitions I've found include, "players who are of a caliber such that they are always available in the minor leagues because the players are well below major-league average" and "the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire." In what world would we be able to pitch a guy that fits either of those definitions and expect him to approximate anything near 2.8 wins under what Shota has done in 28 starts? The idea that Judge is going to help get his team 10 more wins over the course of 150 games to date than a guy available and likely to make the league minimum makes sense to me. But there's no way a SP from the minors, or floating around among MLB teams, available and likely to be paid the minimum, could start 28 times and/or throw for 160+ innings and not get absolutely shelled. What am I missing?

---

Just had a thought... Part of it must be that games are 9 (or more) innings, and so SPs pitching every 5 days, and not often going more than 6 or 7 innings, are thus going to have much lower ceilings than position players. But still, it feels off to me.

[Butcher]

Yeah, I'm with you, Sheps. Out of curiosity, I wondered if strikeouts had a lot to do with the calculations. Shota's strikeout numbers are respectable -- he's basically averaging a strikeout an inning. After yesterday's start, his WAR is 3.2. Chris Sale's WAR is 6.4 and he leads the NL in strikeouts. So maybe it factors in defense-independent outs recorded? Cease, who strikes out a lot of batters, too, is at 4.2 WAR. I don't know. But, to me, Shota has been our most valuable player. Far more valuable than Hoerner. Maybe WAR isn't the best measurement for pitchers?

[Butcher]

I don’t hate the signing, but he’s at best a mid-rotation SP. Going to need to see other moves to improve the offense and bullpen before this offseason is saved. Also it sounds like this is just a 2 year deal with a series of opt-outs.


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Just pulling up some receipts re: Shota...

[rok]

Like I said. L O V E the signing.

I don't know anything about baseball.

[Butcher]

Like I said. L O V E the signing.

I don't know anything about baseball.

[MrSheps]

Yeah, I'm with you, Sheps. Out of curiosity, I wondered if strikeouts had a lot to do with the calculations. Shota's strikeout numbers are respectable -- he's basically averaging a strikeout an inning. After yesterday's start, his WAR is 3.2. Chris Sale's WAR is 6.4 and he leads the NL in strikeouts. So maybe it factors in defense-independent outs recorded? Cease, who strikes out a lot of batters, too, is at 4.2 WAR. I don't know. But, to me, Shota has been our most valuable player. Far more valuable than Hoerner. Maybe WAR isn't the best measurement for pitchers?

Totally agree, and that makes a lot of sense re: Ks, that might explain part of it, since Ks are independent of defense. But one other way to put it... Hendricks is essentially a zero WAR on FanGraphs. (Interestingly, Baseball Reference says -1.8.) But according to fWAR, if we cloned Kyle this season and Kyle2 made all TWENTY NINE of Shota's starts, the Cubs would have 76 wins instead of 79. There's no way.

[Butcher]

Yeah, I'm with you, Sheps. Out of curiosity, I wondered if strikeouts had a lot to do with the calculations. Shota's strikeout numbers are respectable -- he's basically averaging a strikeout an inning. After yesterday's start, his WAR is 3.2. Chris Sale's WAR is 6.4 and he leads the NL in strikeouts. So maybe it factors in defense-independent outs recorded? Cease, who strikes out a lot of batters, too, is at 4.2 WAR. I don't know. But, to me, Shota has been our most valuable player. Far more valuable than Hoerner. Maybe WAR isn't the best measurement for pitchers?

Totally agree, and that makes a lot of sense re: Ks, that might explain part of it, since Ks are independent of defense. But one other way to put it... Hendricks is essentially a zero WAR on FanGraphs. (Interestingly, Baseball Reference says -1.8.) But according to fWAR, if we cloned Kyle this season and Kyle2 made all TWENTY NINE of Shota's starts, the Cubs would have 76 wins instead of 79. There's no way.

Yeah, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

[Butcher]

I've been reflecting on this team and this season a little bit. And there's something about the makeup of the team that really makes me dislike them. Stick with me for a second (and please feel free to challenge me on this). It feels like Jed really tried to put together a team of "high character" guys; good clubhouse guys. There isn't anything wrong with this, of course. But the team really seems to lack an edge. I think PCA has this a little bit, but for the most part the team seems like guys that would be cool to hang with, but just lack a certain killer instinct. Or something. Of course, winning solves everything and if this were a 90-win team, then having a roster full of nice dudes is great. But there's something about the lukewarm nature of this squad that is really unappealing to me. Does this resonate with anyone else?

I know I'll miss baseball when it's gone for the winter, but I'm also really looking forward to this season being over.

[rok]

Butch, I think you're onto something but what this team truly lacks in my humble opinion is 1) a stud middle of the order bat, 2) a stud front-line starting pitcher or two, and 3) lock-down closer. That would immediately give the team an "edge" as you say. I don't think ownership or Jed are willing to shell out the dollars or prospect capital required to make that happen though.

[MrSheps]

You know, Butch, it's not a team that seems to have a lot of edge/fire, whether that was intended in its makeup or not. Swanson has been known to be a clubhouse leader/hard working guy. Nico is intelligent and seems fairly reserved. Belli, even when he was an MVP, has carried more of a chill/stoner label. Two of our best in Shota and Seiya fit the stereotypes often associated with Japanese players of being very respectful of others and the game. Shota brings energy and joy, but he's certainly not edgy. Seiya has actually been told, according to Boog and JD, that he's not getting calls from umpires because he won't complain. Yes, PCA has some swagger for sure. And I don't know if he'll be good enough to stay, but you see some of that swag and edge from Alcantara.

Now, contrast this group with the 2016 group and you do see Rizzo who had edge, certainly Baez with tons of swagger and energy as well in the years that followed. I'd put Schwarber in that category. Eventually that specific team had the top flame throwing closer, tons of edge there. Arrieta had an edge to him. Lester would shout at umpires and stare down hitters. ...But Bryant, as good as he was for a time, was always closer to Nico or maybe Belli in terms of edge. Russel, on the field, displayed none of the truly negative edge he was apparently carrying around. Dex was pretty chill, and Zobrist was the model of a good clubhouse guy. Hendricks too.

Anyway, all the stream of consciousness above is leading to two thoughts...

1. Counsell might not be a great fit for this current group if in fact it is lacking in swagger/edge/fire, whatever you want to call it. If we agree that the 2016 team and that core had more edge, someone calm and steady (though unique and quirky) like Maddon made a lot of sense as a counter balance for that youth and vigor and swag. Council brings no apparent edge to a team lacking it, he's not naturally going to blow up an ump for Seiya to get a future call, or shakeup a complacent team with his force of personality following a loss. He is though a good counter, perhaps, for younger guys like PCA and Alcantara, so maybe as the team gets more of those guys up, he becomes a better fit.

2. Rok, I think you're ultimately right that edge or not, a true star bat or front line stud starter, no matter the personality, would make a world of difference. As good as he is, Judge doesn't seem to have that edge in his personality, but add him to the team and we'd be set. Same for Soto who totally does have it. Or 2016 Byrant who doesn't. And so on. We have a lot of good players, not sure we have any great players, and we need a few.

[Butcher]

Yeah, you make a lot of good points, Sheps. And I agree with you, rok -- more talent tends to fix whatever "chemistry" issues a team has. I think back to that one game when Steele got super pissed off and fired up coming off the field and I was like, "Fucking FINALLY." And, god damn, Counsell has absolutely no intensity about him at all. Just once I would've liked to see him get tossed speaking up for Suzuki and the bullshit strike zone he always has. Why is it on Suzuki to do this? Why can't his manager get in an ump's face just once? Stick up for your fucking players.

Is the farm system going to produce a middle of the order bat? Where do these guys come from? Or a front-line starter? If Jed/Ricketts won't pay for these players, they need to come from somewhere. Because you can't have a roster full of 2-3 WAR guys and expect to not be somewhere in the range of 81-84 wins at the end of the season.

[1060Ivy]

One weird factor that messed with the season was how Wrigley played this season. Offense including home runs were significantly under for both Cubs and opponents when playing at Wrigley. This factor helped our pitching - specially fly ball pitchers, Howdy Shota, but hurt Cubs offensive production.

Wrigley can play differently every year so what should front office do? Expect trend to continue or forecast that Wrigley will become more of a hitters park in next seasons?

Cubs don’t have significant power through their lineup but the Wrigley factor this season muted their power. Unfortunately without trades, I don’t see the situation changing next season so no clue how front office will address issue

[MrSheps]

It was crazy how few times the wind blew out, and it did seem to impact everyone. Couple that with a less-juiced ball, and we saw a lot of warning track shots or HRs barely into the basket.

Here's a thought... Had the Cubs signed Chapman to a 1 year deal, as many suspected they might, would they have snuck into the playoffs? He's sitting at 7 WAR on BR. With all the trouble we had early defensively with Morel, and then eventually offensively with him and Paredes at home, third base gave us almost nothing all season long. I mention this not to put the front office on blast, we may net out better in the long run with Paredes and his youth and cheap contract, but one more signing may have made all this difference in 2024.