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On the other hand, Front Office may have found a smaller, lower ceiling replacement for Quintana in Davis. Davis may not have to face fans’ outsized expectations for this lefty.
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Quote:Haven't really followed Trueblood since he completely lost his shit over the Chapman trade, so hard for me to take him seriously. Anyway, Maybe the Ricketts family will pull an O'Malley and keep all the properties around the ballpark and sell off the team in a few years, who knows? Probably not.
Of course Bernstein retweeted him saying this deal is an indication of how bad their baseball ops/scouting has gotten. Bernstein loves this shit, just will jump over any gossip type fodder. Literally the only person in the "industry" saying that. Just seems like the last few years Trueblood went from high praise to constantly shitting on them.
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Keith Law's long-winded hot take:
Quote:The Padres landed a good No. 2 starter in Blake Snell on Sunday, and then added a good No. 1 starter Id argue the best starter in the National League in 2020 on Monday in Yu Darvish. Where Snell cost some very significant prospects, including the second-best prospect in San Diegos system, Darvish comes mostly as a salary dump, with the Cubs getting some high-upside teenage prospects but nowhere near enough for a pitcher of Darvishs caliber with three years left on his contract.
Darvish was outstanding in 2020, and the main reason was his increased use of his cutter and consequent decrease in the use of his four-seamer, which hitters enjoyed hitting rather far in 2019. Statcast has Darvish using his cutter 44 percent of the time in 2020, and hitters swung and missed at nearly one in six of them. Its effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters, and paired with his slider gives him two true out pitches. He also has a solid splitter that he seldom uses, often out of the zone but good for a chase pitch against lefties in lieu of the slider.
The second reason he was so good in 2020 was the simplest one: He threw more strikes. Nearly 70 percent of the pitches he threw went for strikes, resulting in a career-low walk rate (4.7 percent) by a huge margin. He misses bats, he throws strikes, and by deprecating the four-seamer he keeps the ball in the park. Thats more or less the description of an ace, and when Darvish is healthy, he can clearly be one. He missed most of 2018 because of elbow and triceps injuries, but he made 31 starts in 2017 and 2019 and all 12 starts in 2020. Im fine with a bet on his being healthy enough in the next three years, especially in 2021, to justify the expense in money and prospects to acquire him. Its probably a two-win upgrade for the Padres on the low end, and four or more wins if Darvish carries all of his progress in 2020 over into a full season. The Padres also get Victor Caratini, a useful utility player who can serve as a backup catcher and play other positions, but whos probably not worth much more than replacement level beyond that versatility.
The Cubs just didnt get enough here for Darvish, and its puzzling given how good their club is on paper that theyd sell their top starter just to clear cash, getting only one player in return who will help the club in 2021. That player is Zach Davies, whom Darvish will replace in San Diegos rotation, and who will take on some of the innings Darvish would have thrown. Davies just had his best season in 2020, but hes probably a 2-3 WAR starter in 2021, and hes a free agent after 2021. Hes a fine mid-rotation starter, but the Cubs probably just gave up two to three more wins in production by downgrading from Darvish to Davies although they saved a large part of the $59 million still due on his contract in the process.
They also received four teenage prospects, all of whom have upside but are far enough away that they might not break camp with full-season clubs in 2021. Reginald Preciado is a switch-hitting shortstop signed for $1.3 million out of Panama in July 2019, with bat control but not strength and the potential to be a plus defender at shortstop with a plus arm. Yeison Santana is another shortstop, although hes more likely to move to second base in the long term, with a strong talent for getting the bat to the ball, getting on base and hitting for some power as an 18-year-old in the Arizona Rookie League in 2019. He swings hard, and his stance is wide open, but he has made it work so far with a strikeout rate well below the AZLs median last year. He would have been one to watch in the short-season Northwest League in 2020, with a chance to finish in full-season ball, had we had a minor-league season.
Owen Caissie was the Padres second-round pick in 2020, meaning theyve now traded the players they selected with their second- and third-round picks, although they had a supplemental pick before the second round as well. Caissie didnt turn 18 until a few weeks after the draft; the Canadian outfielder has huge left-handed power despite an unorthodox swing that sees him open his hips early but generates a ton of bat speed. He has a plus arm and will probably end up in right field rather than staying in center. Outfielder Ismael Mena signed at the same time as Preciado and also hasnt made his pro debut yet; he has a very projectable body with the potential for plus power, but has a very long swing from a deep hand load. Id like to see him hit some real pitching before betting on him getting to that power.
Its just not enough for a pitcher who should have won the NL Cy Young Award in the truncated 2020 season, and who was worth 3.5 WAR in 2019, and whose change in approach this past year gives reason to believe he can hold at least most of this new level of performance even as he enters his age-34 season. Why the Cubs are operating on a shoestring is beyond me, but I cant believe this was a baseball operations decision. It was likely forced by ownership, even though the Cubs were a playoff team this past season and had a very good chance to be a playoff team in 2021, even with their offensive flaws. This move makes them less expensive but not better now, and not better for several more years. What a swift, shocking fall for a team that less than five years ago seemed primed to compete for not just one but multiple championships.
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This is a terrible fucking trade. Its a pure salary dump and not giving a shit who they get in return. The sell off has begun and the writing was on the wall this was happening when they dumped Schwarber. Not happy at all about this.
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Yeah, I dont think that's exactly right. I think they probably like those prospects and they have quite a bit of upside, but it probably wasn't enough given that Snell landed the Padres number 2. The worst thing about this is ownership clearly isn't going to do the perpetual win thing they've always claimed.
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The worst part about it is Yu was arguably the best trade chip we had (maybe even more valuable than Contreras), and this is the best they could do? Doesn't give me much hope for whatever other moves Jed can pull off. I'm not against trading core pieces, but you have to get someone back (other than Zach fucking Davies) who can contribute to the MLB team immediately, and not just for 1 season of control.
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Im not going to pretend to know anything about these guys we got back, and maybe one or two will pan out, but they really couldnt have gotten anyone in the Padres top 10 prospects? Im all for selling high on Darvish since apparently the Cubs are broke, but man, it does seem more like a salary dump than not.
Side note, Ace and BN have become close to unfollowable for me, if that is a word.
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Quote:Side note, Ace and BN have become close to unfollowable for me, if that is a word.
In his defense, and not sure if you are referring to his personal handle, I am almost positive the hysterical tweets are Cerami. He's annoying as fuck.
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Yu finds out about this on the interwebs? Something tells me the Epstein would have let him know about the impending deal so that he heard about this from the Cubs before learning about it from Twitter.
Not even talking about getting maybe nothing for the best pitcher in the NL, this is not a good look for Hoyer I think.
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Quote:<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Brock" data-cid="356123" data-time="1609260125">
Side note, Ace and BN have become close to unfollowable for me, if that is a word.
In his defense, and not sure if you are referring to his personal handle, I am almost positive the hysterical tweets are Cerami. He's annoying as fuck.</blockquote>
Bingo.
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Quote:
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="funkster" data-cid="356124" data-time="1609260322">
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Brock" data-cid="356123" data-time="1609260125">
Side note, Ace and BN have become close to unfollowable for me, if that is a word.
In his defense, and not sure if you are referring to his personal handle, I am almost positive the hysterical tweets are Cerami. He's annoying as fuck.</blockquote>
Bingo.
</blockquote>
I also need to remind myself to stay off NSBB...I do not know why i insist on torturing myself. Almost as many expert armchair GMs as on twitter.
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I can't believe that cesspool (or SOI for that matter) is still around.
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They've got a fair amount of regulars.
Willson on the block. I'm just kind of at the point that if we're on the rebuild trajectory just fucking do it, not sure why people are mad. Without some key upgrades this team was is going flame out again in the first series of a playoff anyway.
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I wonder if Nightengale has any actual sources on this rumor or is being used by Contreras' agent to drum up trade interest.
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