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+--- Thread: 2024 win total? (/thread-8520.html)
2024 win total? - Butcher - 03-06-2024
What's your best guess for win total this season?
This team feels like it could land anywhere between 80 and 90 wins. There are a lot of unknowns that could go well or go poorly. How will Imanaga adjust? Will Busch thrive as an everyday player at 1B? Will PCA get significant playing time? Will Taillon bounce back? Is Counsell such an amazing manager that his presence and guidance alone are worth 3-4 wins? What's happening at 3B? I expect Swanson, Hoerner, Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki, Steele and most of our bullpen guys to perform within an expected range.
I'm going to say 86 wins. I don't think this team is a whole lot better than last year, but some minor improvements were made. And not everything is going to go right.
2024 win total? - rok - 03-06-2024
I’m going with 89 wins and a division title, then an early playoff exit. My thoughts are similar to Butchie’s, but I do think we’ll be pleasantly surprised by our rotation and a marginally improved bullpen. Also expect some contributions from minor leaguers like Horton, Shaw and Canario, plus hoping that someone like Ben Brown will inject some firepower to the bullpen.
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RE: 2024 win total? - 1060Ivy - 03-06-2024
More pessimistic than either of you
Prior to the last few weeks of the season, lots of things went right with the squad last year which I don’t see reoccurring this season. The roster is neither significantly better nor that much worse than last year’s end of season roster. Counsell is a better game manager than Ross which should be worth 3-5 wins over course of season. Unfortunately, the Reds, Cards, and even Pirates appear improved.
See this squad as somewhere between 75-85 wins as too much improvement is expected from young players while questions still remain at First and Third.
Overall, guessing 78 wins. Keeping expectations low. Hope to be surprised when Cubs lead the NL Central from opening day through October. Then team gets hot in playoffs and move on to win the World Series
RE: 2024 win total? - Butcher - 03-06-2024
Any chance Carl Edward’s Jr makes the squad? That would be such an awesome story.
RE: 2024 win total? - 1060Ivy - 03-06-2024
Carl’s a great story but old and injury prone.
Believe the bullpen is expected to have a number of solid, young arms - many of which are out of waivers. If he does make the roster out of camp, he’s likely outperformed expectations or Cubs bullpen talent is not as strong as expected.
Carl is facing long odds to make roster but he hasn’t let up a run yet in 3 innings of spring trading ball.
RE: 2024 win total? - 1060Ivy - 03-07-2024
Nice article on what Neris’ brings to the bullpen - leadership and experience
https://theathletic.com/5319400/2024/03/06/cubs-hector-neris-bullpen-leadership/
RE: 2024 win total? - MrSheps - 03-07-2024
It's going to sound like I'm just copying Butch, but my number prior to seeing this was 86 as well. My thinking is that this year's team will be very similar to last year's 83 win team. Belli may regress, same with Steele, but I think that we'll get more out of our corner infielders and some later season impact from the farm. If healthy, I think Suzuki will rake. But as Butch suggested, I'm putting Counsell at +3 wins. Thus, 86 wins. I think Vegas has the Cubs over/under at around 85, fwiw.
One caveat though, I think the nl central is better than people think. I believe the Cubs were 8-5 against the Cards last year, that might be trickier this season. There's lots of young talent on the Reds and even the Pirates. But I'm hoping the Brewers step back to help even it out.
RE: 2024 win total? - Butcher - 03-07-2024
I'm not buying the Cardinals improvement. They won 71 games last year. And maybe their expected win total was higher, but I didn't look it up. Does adding Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn add 12 wins to their total? Their starting rotation is old AF and Gray is already going to start the season on the IL. Goldschmidt is entering his age 36 season, Arenado his age 33 season, and Contreras his age 32 season. It's just an old ass roster, in general.
The Reds scare me a little but something about their roster feels...I don't know...unhinged? I can't fully explain it. The Brewers are going to be a pain in the ass because they just always are. The Pirates should be better. I think the floor of the Central is going to be higher, for sure.
I wish the Cubs would add just one more SP. If they could get Montgomery or Snell on a high AVV/low year deal, that would be amazing. But I get the feeling the roster we have now is the roster we're rolling with to start the season.
2024 win total? - Willbaseball - 03-07-2024
Every team in the division is going to be black and blue and scares me in that sort of way. It will come down to health and depth. No team will pull away and possibly no team will fall too back either. Cubs win nlc with 87 wins.
RE: 2024 win total? - MrSheps - 03-08-2024
Agree with you, Will, and same on Montgomery/Snell, Butch. I keep some small hope alive of a Montgomery signing, but I get that we'd have to be extremely lucky for that to happen at this point, as he'll have lots of teams after him if he's open to the type of contract the Cubs would likely offer.