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+--- Thread: 6 Inning Game (/thread-6476.html)
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6 Inning Game - bz - 09-24-2009
<!--quoteo(post=64252:date=Sep 24 2009, 09:03 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Sep 24 2009, 09:03 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->The biggest connection of ANY stat in baseball to winning games, is OBP. Number one. No other stat is a close second; SLG is a distant second.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
OBP has the highest correlation to runs scored, not necessarily to winning %. I think you could make a strong case for team ERA when looking at contributions to winning %. You need both to win.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Exactly. Look at the 95-2000 Rockies or the Rangers for the past 15 years if you want evidence that it takes more than scoring runs and getting on base to win ball games.
6 Inning Game - SandbergMVP1984 - 09-24-2009
<!--quoteo(post=64245:date=Sep 24 2009, 08:34 AM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Sep 24 2009, 08:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Looks like it hasn't gotten any better:
When winning after 6:
Aug 13 - 48-7
Sep 24 - 67-7 --- 19-0 in that time when leading after 6.
When losing after 6:
Aug 13 - 4-43
Sep 24 - 4-59 --- 0-16 in that time when trailing after 6.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
damn, that is unbelivable. they're totally gutless
6 Inning Game - Ace - 09-24-2009
<!--quoteo(post=64277:date=Sep 24 2009, 12:57 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Sep 24 2009, 12:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64252:date=Sep 24 2009, 09:03 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Sep 24 2009, 09:03 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->The biggest connection of ANY stat in baseball to winning games, is OBP. Number one. No other stat is a close second; SLG is a distant second.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
OBP has the highest correlation to runs scored, not necessarily to winning %. I think you could make a strong case for team ERA when looking at contributions to winning %. You need both to win.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Exactly. Look at the 95-2000 Rockies or the Rangers for the past 15 years if you want evidence that it takes more than scoring runs and getting on base to win ball games.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Agreed, but if we're talking correlation to team wins, no need to limit it to "earned" run average. Might as well make it all runs. But then, you might as well just make it wins and losses. Hmm. That went a direction I didn't expect as I was typing it.
6 Inning Game - veryzer - 09-25-2009
there is no doubt that obp is important, but where does hitting with runners in scoring position rank? i mean, what good is a bunch of base runners if nobody can bring them home? that has to be nearly as important, if not more so, right?
6 Inning Game - Coldneck - 09-25-2009
Tommy, obviously hitting with RISP is only possible if runners ARE in scoring position. You can control the first part of the equation by obtaining players with a knack of getting on base and instilling that philospohy in your minor league system. Typically someone that is good at getting on base will remain that way and vice versa. Hitting w/ RISP is hard to predict and varies from season to season. There are players who consistently hit well with RISP, but for the most part it is not a predictable stat like OBP is.
6 Inning Game - 1060Ivy - 09-25-2009
The Cubs have a player who may single-handlely make a case against OBP as the most important offensive player stat, the player Milton Bradley.
<i>Yeah, I am going to ramble a bit. </i>
For the 2009 Cubs, Bradley has one of the highest OBP on the team - and 39th highest in all MLB - but I doubt that any fan would ever place him as one of the most important offensive weapons on this team.
Watching this guy bat with runners in scoring position helped convince me that maybe OBP isn't the end all stat that some sabermetric guys have made it out to be. Bradley seems to continuely take walks or hit a bloop single which didn't score a run when batting with runners in scoring position. His 2009 stats with runners in scoring position, 88 ABs, 24 RBIs, 18 hits and 22 BB for a 205 BA and 383 OBP.
This season after Derek Lee, Milton Bradley has the highest OBP for the Cubs for players with over 100 games. NOTE: Fuld and Ramirez have similar or slightly higher OBP but both have missed large portions of 2009 so were excluded.
Bradley's best RBI season was last year when he was able to knock in 77 runs and score 78 runs. This year Bradley has 40 RBIs and 61 Runs. The stats tell me is that Bradley should never be seen as a run producer. Unfortunately that's exactly how the Cubs used him for most of 2009. Bradley batted in the 3, 4 and 5 hole for 2/3s of his total ABs in 2009.
Someone should told Henry before signing Bradley that he was about to pay $10 MM a year for someone who basically is a more fragile, less fan-friendly version of Ryan Theriot.
6 Inning Game - jstraw - 09-25-2009
Guy's that excel in OBP need to hit in front of power. Bradley's OBP was meaningful only during those stretches when Lou moved him up. Walks and singles out the ass...it's a fine thing...if the power hitters are behind you...not if you're being asked to pick up other guys.
It's on Lou that it took him fucking forever to move Bradley up.
6 Inning Game - kbwsb - 09-26-2009
It wasn't just Bradley. Last time I checked, the Cubs were <i>last in the league</i> at hitting with Runners In Scoring Position.